It was 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. As the England international curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, even as the wins have piled up.
As per Opta, twice all season has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers now would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
